So, I have played three games so far all as Royalist. Three defeats. I find that particularly my Swedish style horse are coming off second best when up against Dutch style horse. I can charge and will have a five card draw in my first round with a 30% chance of a hit with each card. This could be lowered to 20% if the Dutch horse managed a 30% defensive shot which I didn't save at 30/40/50% depending on Raw/Seasoned/Veteran status. The dutch horse will then save before striking back with 2 draws at 20/30% depending on if they saved or not. Next melee turn the Swedish horse will be drawing 3 cards with a 30/20% chance, the dutch horse with 2 draws unless they initiated the charge when they will also have 3 cards. Add the presence of commanded shot with the dutch horse which gives another defensive shot in round one my experience is that the Swedish horse with 2 hit points versus the dutch with 3 tend to lose. The defender also benefits from cover, ( don't ask me about the failure in 2 games of good quality formed infantry failing to oust dragoons from cover!).
As these rules are descended from To the Strongest I wonder why the to hit chance in melee has been reduced from 50% to 30% in FKap?