Scenario: A War Between the UK and China

[commissarmoody]

Remind me to cuff you round the ears if we ever meet Chris, I remember them when they were the latest thing. 

I will pincel it into  my day planer then. 

[Marine0846]

A very interesting discussion.
Arrigo, you really know your stuff.
Seems like "bean counters" and
commanders preparing for the last war
are a major problem.
Thanks for sharing your knowledge.

[tomcat51]

Yes, very. It seems like corporate thinking is trying to creep its way into the military in order to save money. And where does an overeliance on technology leave us if it is at the expense of training and capability? A long war could soon turn into a slogging match as technological assets are destroyed and more traditional fighting has to be used. How would we cope then? It's unlikely we would ever get into another war on the scale of WW2 (I hope) so perhaps our streamlined and focused modern army is fit for purpose, but who knows where the next conflict will come from. Fail to prepare, preapre to fail.

I love how threads can change from one thing to another so quickly. I migh actually get some miniatures up on here soon.

[Arlequín]

I'm not so sure 'fail to plan, plan to fail' is quite accurate, 'plod along regardless' is somewhat more apt for the British, or if I was more generous 'make do with what you have'... which is somewhat in-line with the USMC's 'adapt, improvise and overcome' combined with a 'buy one get one free' mentality. 

[Brummie]

Was interesting reading your thoughts on the British Army/Armed Forces Arrigo, I'd have to agree on most of them.

Despite the Army having been able to produce some really good historians (with good professional credentials, like Major General Mungo Melvin, or Major General Julian Thompson) the British Army at large (with notable exception) hates academics and proper research.

I've met Melvin (I called him Mr Mungo) at a Military History Conference in Wolverhampton. He is very interested in trying to get academics taking on military roles, especially taking up Reserve service, something I was interested in, and tried to query him about. He did not mention the Armies general distaste towards academics, I think he avoided it entirely probably in the hopes it wouldn't put people off. From talking to friends and acquaintances currently serving in military posts, even those currently working in "Intelligence" or "Green Slime" as they are apparently referred to, what work they have done academically tends to be put to one side, or dismissed (on a few occasions I was approached for advice on where to get information on particular hot zones because they weren't sure where to do their research  ).

However its worth keeping in mind the British army has NEVER really liked academics, during the Great War, the army preferred that their officers spend their time engaging in competitive sports rather than actually studying warfare. I wouldn't be surprised if this situation has existed long before then, and frankly its apart of a wider cultural issue in the U.K.

That said, the U.K is probably one of the only countries in the world that offers its civilian students opportunities to study warfare (of which I'am one) and build up quite considerable credentials in this field. It just so happens the military is largely not willing to use it, will rather recruit yes men (or politicians, just look at who is chair of RUSI now) and all the academics that want to continue doing some of work involving their interest, especially when it comes to contemporary conflicts, end up being recruited by security contractors and sent abroad.

However I digress from the topic at hand.

The thing is, regardless of whether a conflict between U.K and China happened now or during the Cold War, Britain wouldn't be able to win militarily (helped Maggie make the decision to back down over Hong Kong). At the very least it'd have to be as apart of a greater alliance, and even then we'd only play a minor role, due to the issue of logistics. So a task force in support of a local force is maybe the best way to go.

As for China, any of the potential conflicts mentioned would require it to rely heavily on amphibious forces which would be interesting from the perspective that the PLA is only really beginning to seriously develop that particular capability. Supposedly anyway, most of this stuff is classified so info is sketchy.

[tomcat51]

I would set my games "sometime in the near future" in a world similar to our own, but where hotter heads prevail. I think a real war with China, Russia, or anyone really, would be catastrophically costly, especially considering how intertwined we all are globally. It would take a mind blowingly stupid regime or government to actually instigate a conflict. This article touches on the subject and is a veiw I tend to agree with;
https://medium.com/war-is-boring/a-war-with-china-would-be-bloody-and-stupid-b1ab865b6126

[commissarmoody]

Great article, you know. I would also like to have a go of having maybe India or China go at it. 
In a war gaming since. Not really life.

[Brummie]

Great article, you know. I would also like to have a go of having maybe India or China go at it. 
In a war gaming since. Not really life.

GHQ will be doing 6mm Indian armour this year, so between them and Heroics and Ros you could potentially field pretty much the bulk of what you'd need for a Sino-Indian War.

[Arrigo]

That said, the U.K is probably one of the only countries in the world that offers its civilian students opportunities to study warfare (of which I'am one) and build up quite considerable credentials in this field. It just so happens the military is largely not willing to use it, will rather recruit yes men (or politicians, just look at who is chair of RUSI now) and all the academics that want to continue doing some of work involving their interest, especially when it comes to contemporary conflicts, end up being recruited by security contractors and sent abroad.

Well not just 'its civilian students' also Italian and foreign ones   (shows his KCL MA degree and PhD in... War Studies!).

Well one of my past students (I was doing GTA jobs for Phil Sabin...) is now a Captain and in charge of the "Aldershot wargame" (the new incarnation of last year "Sandhurst Wargame") so nothing is completely lost. There has always been some form of exchange, the Defence Studies Department at Shrivenam is staffed largely by KCL people. There also people like MG Andrew Sharpe that think using academics is positive. I am more afraid of the people like the director of courses at Sandhurst who was of the "we do not like academics" field (and also "our cadets are stupid, we do not need to teach them too much"). My experience being leading historian for Operation Olive Fist (a battlefield study) was very good. I think a lot of problems arose more from the rear echelon people and less from the people in combat units who tend to be smart and bright. It is interesting that one of the QRH Squadron commander had an history degree from KCL too.

RUSI... well Commodore Clapp told me he dropped his membership because it was too expensive and quite crappy. I was not overly impressed by their conferences and, especially, by their papers. Their Russian army expert seems to have problems in understanding that artillery delivers area fire and it is not just because Russian guns are old. I remember last year they put out a paper describing how good the F-22 was in air to ground role (well it can drop JDAM, not self designate... just a little oversight...). RUSI is more or less a bunch of yes men who says how great the British Military is... but well... few years ago before the 2010 SDSR, professor Malcolm Chalmers (who put being a KCL lecturer in his CV but he was not...) wrote a RUSI paper on alternative methods of nuclear deterrence. Beside saying that the Typhoon were capable to carry nukes... he had a nice ide of using special forces to deliver nuclear bombs on retaliatory targets. I fear he saw too many action B-movies... and then we have an anecdote (I was not present, it has been told to me by a source that is not 100% reliable, and Phil Sabin assures me that it was unbelievable) of Dr. Lee Willet from RUSI onboard the HMS Bulwark, saying a goalkeeper was a 4.5" gun...    

Ok back on topic...

I think you do not need to win militarily a conflict. At least not in the total war sense. Just make it too costly for the other side. PRC is not 1960 Vietnam, they cannot simply send people on the trail and accept whatever losses. Their citizens expect some accountability. I think in the 80s Defending HK would have been possible, also you would have had your back to the american lake and probably a couple of carriers pumping alpha strikes.  No when the government decided to cede back the island (they were required by treaty to just give back  the new territories) it was more or less because China was seen as a friend of convenience. It was before Tien An Men, same period when the Chinese got the L7A1 license from UK, they were in talks with Fairchild for the A-10, and the US gave them radars and ECM (and Blackhawks too). People forget we had a sort of honeymoon with them. By the time the honeymoon ended and there were people wanting to renege teh treaty, well US would have backed UK, but at the time reneging written treaty was seen counterproductive and there was still the hope to get in with the Chinese.

By the way, while US his right now bashing Beijing for almost everything real and imagined, there is still a lot of joint training going on between the PLA and PLAN and the Pacific Command.  

As war you need to have hotter head to start a war... well miscalculation does not need instigation. More often than not wars start because you back your opponent ina certain position without even having realized what you were doing. I have read the article and while some part I agree with, some I think are more wishful thinking on the part of the authors (who are well know for some quite atrocious mistakes in the past) and the interviewer (who has an interesting background). My guess a potential war is 60% affair (60% US victory, 40% PRC victory chance). Now that Greenert is finally out, I assume the US Navy will clean house. It would be bloody of course... and I will have to pick sides (a thing I do not want to do).  About it being stupid or not... depend on the situation.

On gaming term this would be akin to invent a world war from scratch just to have an idea of what to do, and probably will lead to mission creep (I just need this company to finish that formation for that scenario...). Plus it will be a large naval war and tomcat51 does not appear interested in ships...  This is the reason why I advocate smaller conflict like the Confrontation as a model (and if you look at it from the Historian perspective it was a bloody good idea for both sides! Using military forces without escalation and practically denying everything by mutual consent).

[Arrigo]

GHQ will be doing 6mm Indian armour this year, so between them and Heroics and Ros you could potentially field pretty much the bulk of what you'd need for a Sino-Indian War.

It is one of my project... call me hothead, but after India kidnapped two Italian NCO I have started to see India as a bigger threat than China. Plus... I do not have friend or crushes in the Indian military... 

[commissarmoody]

It is one of my project... call me hothead, but after India kidnapped two Italian NCO I have started to see India as a bigger threat than China. Plus... I do not have friend or crushes in the Indian military... 

and the truth comes out! 
Just kidding of course.
I always seen the Chinese build up as a counter to the Indian navy . Oh and as a "hey look at us, we are a big power and are the world stage" thing.
Like how before world war one every one had to have a battle ship.

[Brummie]

It is one of my project... call me hothead, but after India kidnapped two Italian NCO I have started to see India as a bigger threat than China. Plus... I do not have friend or crushes in the Indian military... 

They're doing Italians too which I'm looking forward to, always had a soft spot for Italian kit. I want to do Chinese Vs Everybody and Anybody in the immediate neighborhood. Not Italians though, I've got a North African campaign in mind for them.

For now though I'm concentrating on the Middle East: 6mm Iranian and Saudis atm. I'll be posting pics when they're is something decent to show, and I'll probably set up a blog for background so forum rules are not breached.

[AKULA]

(shows his KCL MA degree and PhD in... War Studies!).

Guessed as much, by some of the names you mentioned - one of my favourite lectures at KCL was Julian Thompson's on the Falklands

 

Would agree the original premise was a tad far fetched - something in the South China Sea sounds more "realistic"...training a local partner, then getting drawn in/mission creep, eg by a stray missile hitting a warship in-theatre.

Either way the pendulum in the British Armed Forces has swung towards light mobile formations, special forces, drones and cruise missiles, rather than heavy armour. Fine for COIN ops or a regional conflict against a third rate power like Argentina (no insult meant) although even in the case of the latter we'd have to "make-do" until we have a carrier with actual aircraft on it.

Until the pendulum swings back the other way, HMG are unlikely to get involved in a shooting war without doing so in conjunction with the US (with the exception of The Falklands, or unruly Spanish fishermen assaulting Gibraltar).

[tomcat51]

After all that I'm now considering a conflict between India a China with the British being asked to step in and lend support to India, in an advisory role at first, then with mission creep setting in after India gets a mauling and loses territory. Plausible? Who would I use as Indian soldiers in 28mm?

[Arrigo]

bad idea... 

no one is doing Indians right now in 28mm. and the best proxyes (Mongrel syrians, not perfect, but a good starting point... except that they are more or less defunct). Ok there was a guy who asked money to do a range on KS. But was really "give me money, then I will contact a sculptor then I will..." Even Rick Falch had at least some things to show... that guy only shown a miniature (1) from another brand...

Stick to Borneo... avoid mission creep 

You know, today you are talking of advisors and infantry, tomorrow you will talk of armoured divisions...  Also why the hell India needs UK? If the Indian army is not sufficient what a couple of brigades will do? Of course in 6mm it is an eminently doable project... but again what kind of games are you looking for?