Czechoslovakia 1938 "What If" Project

[SBMiniaturesGuy]

Greetings!
I write a lot for Two Hour Wargames, and what's nice about them is they usually just say write what you want to play. In research another game book I became fascinated by the great "What If" of WW2 - what if Czechoslovakia hadn't accepted the Munich Agreement despite the intense pressure it faced, and refused to surrender the Sudetenland to Germany?

The balance of forces was tilted against Czechoslovakia, but not as dramatically as one would suppose given the relative ease the Germans had conquering Poland and then during their Blitzkrieg across the Lowlands and into France in 1940.

In 1938 Germany simply wasn’t ready for a major war, and the Wehrmacht wasn’t yet a veteran force skilled in the art of Blitzkrieg and maneuver warfare. The German economy was unsteady, and the German war machine wasn’t ready to support prolonged combat. Furthermore, many of the newest weapon systems it used to conquer Poland and France were just starting to be deployed.

In contrast, Czechoslovakia was a center of heavy industry, such as the Pilsen Steelworks, and the innovative armored fighting vehicles and artillery systems produced by the famous Skoda Works and Brrno Arms Works. While the Czechs were at a minor disadvantage in the air, on land they had fine equipment.
 
The terrain and weather also favored Czechoslovakia. The Sudetenland was hilly and mountainous, and heavily defended by fixed fortifications and defensible choke-points making it impossible for German forces to Blitz into Czechoslovakia. The weather in October 1938 was also rainy and foggy, reducing the effectiveness and mobility of German land forces and nullifying Germany’s airpower advantage.

It’s not likely the Czechs could have won outright, but they could have been too painful to swallow – and the longer they held out the more likely France or other powers would have come to their aid (including the USSR) – and the longer the war went the more likely that internal pressures inside the German economy and government could have boiled over into economic turmoil and even the assassination of Adolf Hitler.

Well, I want to game this -- and since I can't find a game book, I'm writing one. Cover below, the rest of this will be a project blog that will include some battle reports.


 

[SBMiniaturesGuy]

Now that I know *what* I want to game, where do I get the figures?

1. Czech infantry: Turns out there is a source on Etsy that makes 28mm Slovak infantry -- same equipment and uniform, and distinctive "mushroom cap" helmet. They make a basic 10-man squad, but no support weapons. You can kitbash a British Bren gun onto a Czech figure, since the Bren gun was actually based on the Czech ZB vz. 26  light machine gun.  Nick at Eureka Miniatures has some off-books Czech heads, and I plan to get some and use Polish MMGs and Mortars given the equipment similarities. So I have a Czech platoon and support weapons in the production queue.

2. Czech AFVs: I will get some Panzer38(t) which are really Czech ČKD LT vz. 38 light tanks and paint them in Czech camo pattern. There's also a 3D printed Czech Tatra OA vz.30  armored cars

3. German equipment is easy to source, and I'll get some Panzer Is and Panzer IIs.

First test run - a squad of Czech infantry and a border check point that will also be used in the Last Knight games.

[swiftnick]

There is a czech company that produces some very nice 38 figures including the lmg. I can't think what they are called at moment.
They also did the lovely 30 years war range that warlord now produce.

[carlos marighela]

Your Czech tanks should really be LT vz.35 AKA the Panzer 35(t) ). The LT vz. 38 didn't actually go into production until after the 1938 Crisis and so none saw service. They were still not in service y the time Germany rolled in in 1939. Fortunately there are quite a few Pz 35 (t) for you to choose from in resin.

If you want exotica a couple of manufacturers make the Tatra armoured rail car. IIRC Company  in the US is one. Thenyou have the truly weird looking Skoda Pa-II, the so called turtle armoured car. There were still a handful in police service in 1938. Pretty sure I've seen one made by a bespoke resin printer ut cannot recall by whom.

The Poles primarily used  the Ckm wz.30, a version of the US Browning M1917. The Czechs primarily used the Schwarzlose vz.24. Again there are some avaiable if you can be bothered, the Brigade Games Austro-Hungarian range has examples, amongst others. They were also bringing the vz.37 into service and Empress produce one for their Romanians, that just requires a head swap.

Speaking of Romanians, they, via the Little Entente, were the most likely reinforcements for the Czechs in the case of war breaking out.

I can dig out the links for some sites dealing with Czech bunkers if you fancy making some field fortifications.

@ swiftnick. The Czech company you mention is/was Bohemia miniatures and the owner Emil Horky is a member of LAF. Alas, several of the figures in the range seem to have gone OOP but maye a PM or email to Emil would sort that out. Superb figures, they are Paul Hicks sculpts, so pretty much the gold standard for 28mm figures.

[SBMiniaturesGuy]

Great information, thanks! I have purchased some LT vz.35 tanks and OA vz.30 armored cars. For bunkers, I have gotten a more or less standard MG bunker since the large fortifications are usually too large for skirmish level games. I did connect with Nic at Eureka Miniatures (Australia) and he does have Czech heads for sale -- but the postage costs are very high, so rethinking that.  I have visited Emil's blog, and sent an email to an address I found. We'll see.

[destofante]

Most of this equipment should be also available for 15mm miniatures. Peter Pig has Slovak helmets in its "heads" range. My only question would be: which body/uniforms would be the most likely candidate for the heads swap? I am not familiar at all with Czech uniforms, but this could be an interesting little sideshow (especially now that I am slowly building an Early war German force.)

[SBMiniaturesGuy]

For 28mm I think Romanian is probably close since the unform also includes puttees and so on, though the infantry back pack is different and the wrong helmet, so you'll need new heads. In a pinch where the puttees don't show much you could get away with Polish infantry if you alter the helmets. The Polish helmet is similar to the Czech helmet, but it has a slight brin you can try and shave down giving it more of a Czech look.

For officer figures either Romanian or Russian, since Czech officers had jodhpur style pants and a cap with a flat brim, and high peak.

You can get 28mm Slovak Infantry from Etsy (same uniforms and equipment as 1938 Czech infantry), so then for support weapons perhaps Poland is closest, though you will need new heads or shave the helmet brims off.

[leadboy]

Very interesting project, and a question (what would have happened in the event
of war between Czecho and Germany in 1938, assuming no Munich Agreement)
that I've thought a bit about over the years. Are you interested in the operational
level as well as the skirmish level - I seem to remember that there is an old S&T
boardgame for Case Green, but I've never played it as boardgames aren't really
my thing. Anyway, my tuppenyworth:

(1). absent Munich, Hitler would certainly have gone to war. Query whether the
General Staff/internal dissidents would have succeeded in removing him had he
done so:
(2). there's no chance of Czechoslovakia actually beating Germany!
(3). Czecho Air Force would have been completely outnumbered and outclassed
by the Luftwaffe, which was "a generation ahead" in terms of aircraft design
(4). while the 35(t) must be considered a better tank than the Pz.1 and Pz.2,
there's no evidence that Czech tank doctrine was as advanced as German tank
doctrine - i.e. severe danger of dispersion of Czech tank strength rather than a
concentration to meet "blitzkrieg" style tactics
(5). surrounded on three sides, Czechoslovakia's strategic starting point was a
major disadvantage
(6). there may be some query as to the reliability of some elements of the Czech
Army, given the various different ethnicities within it (including of course, on
conscription, Sudeten Germans!)
(7). I'm not so sure that Roumania would have gone to war to assist Czechoslovakia.
However, Czecho did have a treaty of support with the Soviet Union, and apparently
had prepared a large number of landing fields for Soviet aircraft. This is probably
all that the Soviet Union could have provided by way of support given the attitude
of intervening countries (such as Poland) who would not have allowed the Red Army
to tranship across their territory.

Looking forward to seeing how the project builds.

[carlos marighela]

3). Czecho Air Force would have been completely outnumbered and outclassed
by the Luftwaffe, which was "a generation ahead" in terms of aircraft design

Not really. Most of those 'generation ahead' Bf-109s were still in the process of manufacture. A  relatively small number of production model B, C & D model Messerschmitts are in service in Autumn 1938. Some would almost certainly have been kept back for defence of the Reich. Comparing the main in-service fighter types makes it a much more even contest.


(4). while the 35(t) must be considered a better tank than the Pz.1 and Pz.2,
there's no evidence that Czech tank doctrine was as advanced as German tank
doctrine - i.e. severe danger of dispersion of Czech tank strength rather than a
concentration to meet "blitzkrieg" style tactics

There's compelling evidence that the Wehrmacht had not yet mastered combined arms tactics in 1938. Anschluss was unopposed yet the drive into Austria a few months earlier was a litany of woe.

The Czechs had small numbers of tanks and tankettes assigned to  most infantry divisions. They also had the Mobile Divisions, where the preponderance of their armoured and motorised infantry strength were concentrated. Their best parrallel would be the German Light Divisions, a mix of armour, motorised infantry and cavalry. The Germans relied upon these for about a third of their mechanised forces until well into 1940.

To effect the 'blitzkreig' model of early WW2 actually requires some of the kit they had in 1940. The Pzkpfw I was essentially a barely armoured training vehicle and it was formed the overwhelming preponderance of German armour in 1938. Forget Czech armour, they have large numbers of modern Czech anti-tank weapons to contend with.

(6). there may be some query as to the reliability of some elements of the Czech
Army, given the various different ethnicities within it (including of course, on
conscription, Sudeten Germans!)

This requires very little speculation. One merely looks at the incidence of absenteeism of the ethnic German population during the call up of 1938.

7). I'm not so sure that Roumania would have gone to war to assist Czechoslovakia.
However, Czecho did have a treaty of support with the Soviet Union, and apparently
had prepared a large number of landing fields for Soviet aircraft. This is probably
all that the Soviet Union could have provided by way of support given the attitude
of intervening countries (such as Poland) who would not have allowed the Red Army
to tranship across their territory.

The Romanians weren't so sure themselves in the final analysis. However, if there is no Munich and the French, upon whom much of this is contingent, take any form of action against Germany then Romania becomes much more likely to become involved, being treaty bound to do so. The Soviet Union requires transit for its forces and realistically, without invading Poland, they require Romanian compliance to access Slovakia.

[SBMiniaturesGuy]

Making some progress,  Panzer Is ready for action. A 28mm Czech infantry figure for scale. Yes, these are 1/56th scale tanks!

[leadboy]

Nice Panzers !

Carlos - v. interesting reply. I'll come back to you further on the Air Force balance once I've checked my sources, but I'm very interested on your source(s) for the information on the Czech armoured dispositions. Do you have a book or article(s) that you would recommend on this ?

[carlos marighela]

The Nafziger site lists all the Czech divisions and has an accompanying table showing whether they included a tankette company (vz.33) or a tank company LT vz.34 or none.

Bf-109s? There were total of 341 B models manufactured. The C model of which there were grand total of 58 only entered production in March/Apil of 1938. IIRC the D model only went into production in the summer of 1938, no idea how many were in squadron service but I doubt it was many if any.

By way of comparison there were over 500 Arado Ar 68s built by the time of Munich and most were still in service. Add to that there were still a considerable number of He-51s still in service out of the 700 or so manufactured if only out of sheer necessity.

The Avia B-536, the Czech airforce's primary fighter (of which there were over 500) was markedly superior to both the Ar 68 and the He-51 both in raw speed and overall combat performance. It would even have been problematic for anyone in an early model Bf-109 attempting to dogfight it as it was a very manouverable aircraft, something borne out by an encounter between late model Messerschmitts and Bulgarian B-534s in 1944. Naturally enough the speed advantage would allow the Bf-109 to enter and withdraw from combat largely at will.

As the Luftwaffe would have been unable to put all its eggs in one basket had war broken out, the actual margins would have been a lot closer than you might think. Remember the Poles were able to give the Luftwaffe a few nasty knocks and the disparity between the Luftwaffe in 1939 and the Polish Airforce was far greater.

[leadboy]

Thanks for coming back Carlos. The Journal of Strategic Studies published an article on the "military balance" back in 2008 by an academic, Milan Hauner of the German Historical Institute. He concluded:

"Arithmetically, the Wehrmacht enjoyed a clear superiority over the Czech armed forces. Against eight fully motorised formations (three panzer, four motorised infantry and one light division), the Czechs had merely one motorised infantry division and four so called mobile divisions which represented a heterogenous combination of a cavalry and a motorised brigade improved by a tank regiment...."

and

"Most depressing for the Czech General Staff, however, must have been the superiority of the German Air Force. It was not only the number of first line squadrons, half of them equipped with modern bombers, but also the incredibly high rate of output of the German aircraft factories...."

and

"The Czechs also lacked adequate numbers of anti tank and anti aircraft guns, but were well equipped in infantry weapons and field artillery...."

The figures Hauner gives for tanks (taking your point as to the qualitative difference between Pz.1/Pz.2 and 35(t)) is Czech - 418 and Germany - 1,230. The figure he gives for aircraft (combat aircraft, first line) is Czech - c.600 and German - 1,230 (about half the then strength of the Luftwaffe).

Hauner gives about 12 separate sources for the above, but I don't set them out here (as yet!!). Quite a few of them are obviously in German.

I take your point on the marks of Bf.109s available (no Emils, obviously!) but I seem to remember that by the time of Munich the Luftwaffe had one Geschwader of Bf.109Ds available. I'll have to check my source on that and come back to you, but thought I'd set out the above just to go along with.

Interesting debate and looking forward to seeing the 28mm action in due course!

PS. Carlos, I've check the Nafziger site, thanks for pointing me in that direction, but it doesn't appear to have a Czech 1938 OOB. I've taken my time to search. Am I missing something obvious ? (the answer is usually, "yes", in which case could you possibly indulge me with a direct link ?)

[Panzer21]

Niehorster rather than Nafziger?

http://www.niehorster.org/037_czechoslovakia/__czechoslovakia.html

Neil

[SBMiniaturesGuy]

I will have to hunt down my resources, intense web searching that also led to registering with the Journal of Central European History where you can find political and military history resources, including Czech and Slovak resources, you can read via Google Translate.

I would quibble with Hauner's argument about Czech ATGs. Yes, the Czechs were not well equipped with light AA, but they had a lot of 37mm ATGs deployed with infantry units, and larger guns in fixed defenses. In 1938 a 37mm ATG could kill Panzer Is and Panzer IIs frontally, and possibly early model Panzer IIIs frontally. But 37mm ATGs could kill early model Panzer IIIs and Panzer IVs in the flank. Luckily for the Czechs the Germans had only a handful of Panzer IIIs and Panzer IVs in 1938.

Regarding aricraft, the Czech Avia B-534 fighter was superior to every German fighter save the Me-109,  which only beat the B-534 in dive speed and top speed. The B-534 could out climb and out-turn the Me-109 as demonstrated at the 1937 International Air Meeting at Zürich's Dübendorf airport. While this link doesn't show the aircraft flying, this footage shows the Czech B-534s on the tarmac at that airshow.



The Wehrmacht simply wasn't ready for a Big War in 1938.