The LAF Games Workshop Discussion Thread

[Dolmot]

I don't think anyone has said they're going to fail right now.

No, but they have been failing very soon since 1990 or so.

[Vermis]

I was oversimplifying their product offer, I appreciate. I believe they do some spacey stuff too.

Apart from a few paints, I am not and have never been a GW shopper.

I've oversimplified, myself. There's still the matter of how much Battle of Calth, WFB panic buying, and interest in the AoS starter sets (especially from 40K players looking for, er... baroque space marines) might have skewed the appearance of interest in AoS in general. The exact breakdowns probably won't ever be known to us rubberneckers, though the next couple of reports might give a clue.
Maybe it is all down to AoS, and I'll hold my hands up if it helps GW rocket back up, past the 6M mark.

[Vermis]

No, but they have been failing very soon since 1990 or so.

I've been hearing ~5 years for a couple of years. Is that soon or long-term? In any case, I don't know if slumping sales, static/dropping revenue, and apparently no clue how to fix it (the word 'otiose' is like a mantra, now) since the LotR bubble burst, is really a sign that all the Cassandras were wrong. They were still massively profitable, but even that few million in profit wasn't going to survive almost-inevitable bites taken out of it, every year. WFB didn't survive it, anyway. How much profit did that still contribute, when it was axed? Who knows, but I'll bet it was also a number that most wargaming businesses only dream of.

Anyhow. On the face if it, it looks like Captain Rountree's swooped in to save the day. At the mo I don't see GW returning to the altruistic, hobbyist-obsessed company that it never really was in the first place, but maybe it'll stop chasing away so much of it's fanbase.

[Too Bo Coo]

Is there a sufficiently high turnover with those jobs?  Or is this corporate speak for "we're switching our staff over to temporary/contract positions"?

As I understand, they turn over 30% or so of their store staff each year.  That's pretty significant.

[rebelyell2006]

As I understand, they turn over 30% or so of their store staff each year.  That's pretty significant.

That's Walmart levels of turnover.  That has to be intentional, in order to avoid paying COL increases or bonuses or other benefits.

[Dim_Reaper]

Well profits may have been 'flat' over Christmas (i.e. they didn't make more than they did last year) but since they made £6M last year, that's still not too shabby. And £16M profit for the year as a whole last financial year. Certainly doesn't look like they're going down the tubes any time soon, does it? Despite the commentary wall of doom and despair here and elsewhere, GW is evidently still successfully selling an awful lot of baroque toy goblins and elves to somebody... 

I can't speak as someone who understands how businesses work, but I can speak as a long suffering customer. I'm somewhat reticent, it's like people who say "speaking as a parent...", don't you want to stab them as a maniac? (Yes, I stole that from Ed Byrne) Whilst it doesn't over-qualify me above anyone else here, I might be able to add a bit more perspective on why the doomsayers constantly toll the bells.

I'll start backwards (as some later points mention this). Why is it always a dirge of GW going down, and yet never happens? Well, it's because both sides misunderstand the effects and abilities each side has. The fans being dissatisfied and indeed being very vocal about it has hit GW hard on the internet. As GW haven't bothered to engage (and in fact in many ways are either being worse out of spite or are unwilling to engage on any points of criticism irrespective of validity) with the fanbase and others on the net, this has been left to their staunch defenders. Many of them have given up, largely because they're starting to realise they don't actually have an argument, and in many, many cases, the critics are right.

Likewise, GW, whilst making a load of errors that anyone in the wargaming industry* would be stupid to make, they're not exactly a depraved butcher making meat chops from their own limbs. There is within GW a capacity to somewhat override how badly they suck at certain aspects. Some say this sort of thing is inevitable for a big company, well shit, if I felt that GW at least showed a sign of fucking trying to address even a fraction of this issue, I'd have sympathy.

(*Note "wargaming industry". I personally no longer consider them part of it)

Obviously, White Knights will be seizing on the recent announcement of Specialist Games, and recent (shock horror!) sales as a sign of GW embracing some kind of reasonableness. But I just don't see it. What I see is desperation. GW don't bother to give their fans what they want unless they absolutely need to, and even then, they'll likely flat ignore them (as Age of Sigmar shows).

It's this attitude that gets the doomsayers wailing. Because I for one am not surprised that a company that at least gets the aesthetics right (as if that is difficult in this digital age) is at least able to make a sizeable profit, especially when it produces good quality plastic casts that the competition is not yet able to match. But if you take that away, what have you got? You have two games with a source of rich lore/fluff/background that fans appreciate, but in both cases, the writers who created these rich settings have nothing to do with Games Workshop: in the first case (40K) Priestley, Ansell, Chambers, Pirinin, Cavatore, Thorpe et al have all left (there's just Jervis, who is not the best of the bunch by a long chalk); in the other, we have Tolkein. Nuff said. The current "writers" are just not up to it. The new names of units, the new fluff of Age of Sigmar, they highlight massively the inferior stock of writers GW have left.

We take the rules, and well, they function, that's about it. To some, they don't even do that. I know a lot of people say Age of Sigmar doesn't even work at all (they are mostly WHFB players though, a demographic, it can safely be said, I was never a fan of...). Certainly in terms of what GW's games represent? They all represent the same thing. Masses of noticeable inequalities that are shifted as often as possible. Because sales. The games have received a lot of criticism over the years, and that's always been constant. But the level of validity of those arguments has never been greater. Nor have the arguments been shorter. For example:

Step 1: Critic makes observation.
Step 2: White Knight makes personal insult/difficult to counter (yet still erroneous) stock argument
Step 3: Critic either refutes or flame war ensues.
Step 4: [Optional] Step 2 repeats, until flame war ensues.

That's Warseer and BOLS out of the way at least...

So the point I'm ambling towards is, GW's doom is not imminent, but without serious and lasting change in the way they operate, it is inevitable. It has to be viewed not from the Sales tricks they are able to employ to keep afloat, nor the ludicrous low standards of many of their customers (although obviously that does help) but of the long term damage that they have been doing to their product since the start of the Ward era that slowly (very slowly) starts making their prices even difficult to justify to like, say, Space Marine players. And that is how the company will end.

It wont take months. It'll take years, but it will happen if their writing and attitude doesn't improve. Because those things are damaging the value of their product. Increasingly. For my money, that's what explains the drop in sales. People are sick of their bullshit. Every year there is more and more. Only now it's getting so low that people have actually noticed. Because this isn't the only drop in sales that the company has reported. In the past decade it hasn't happened, what, twice? the rest of the time there were drops in sales.

[Elbows]

I think the most interesting bit to me...

Games Workshop would do 100% fine if they did the following:

1) Allowed normal retailers to sell via internet/no limits.
2) Had a facebook page/social media presence.
3) Dropped the price of their most ridiculous stuff by 15-20% (prior to online discount by retailers).
4) Close as many of their non-profitable stores as they have to.
5) Cull the product line by 10-20% of the stuff that is irrelevant and no one purchases. (Rule #1: don't insult your customers with ridiculous prices for toy soldiers)

Basically, operate as a normal damn company.  Yes, their rules are a bit crap.  Yes a lot of people (myself included) dislike a lot of their design choices, but the people have spoken.  40K is hugely popular.  Warhammer AoS...could be?  I doubt it will with the 200% cost of figures compared to similar 40K models.  But there are loads of people/kids/adults who love Warhammer and will buy damn near anything.

But going out of your way to remove retailers/alternate sources for your kits/models etc.  Crushing fan projects, suing everyone who makes anything similar etc.  It's as if GW is trying to lose market.  Trim the fat, and sell stuff like a normal damn company.  Hell sales would probably increase to the point of outrunning supply.  Maybe not in Warhammer Fantasy as regimental games like that are simply a tough sell.

[Too Bo Coo]

I'm curious how much of their revenue is due to licensing deals and not sales at all.  They've licensed a LOT of stuff recently.  Video games, FFG's rerelease of Talisman and the 40k reskin, etc. 

[Too Bo Coo]

I think the most interesting bit to me...

Games Workshop would do 100% fine if they did the following:

1) Allowed normal retailers to sell via internet/no limits.
2) Had a facebook page/social media presence.
3) Dropped the price of their most ridiculous stuff by 15-20% (prior to online discount by retailers).
4) Close as many of their non-profitable stores as they have to.
5) Cull the product line by 10-20% of the stuff that is irrelevant and no one purchases. (Rule #1: don't insult your customers with ridiculous prices for toy soldiers)

Basically, operate as a normal damn company.  Yes, their rules are a bit crap.  Yes a lot of people (myself included) dislike a lot of their design choices, but the people have spoken.  40K is hugely popular.  Warhammer AoS...could be?  I doubt it will with the 200% cost of figures compared to similar 40K models.  But there are loads of people/kids/adults who love Warhammer and will buy damn near anything.

But going out of your way to remove retailers/alternate sources for your kits/models etc.  Crushing fan projects, suing everyone who makes anything similar etc.  It's as if GW is trying to lose market.  Trim the fat, and sell stuff like a normal damn company.  Hell sales would probably increase to the point of outrunning supply.  Maybe not in Warhammer Fantasy as regimental games like that are simply a tough sell.

It seems as if the people at GW still think they're the only show in town....

[Dim_Reaper]

Basically, operate as a normal damn company.  Yes, their rules are a bit crap.  Yes a lot of people (myself included) dislike a lot of their design choices, but the people have spoken.  40K is hugely popular.  Warhammer AoS...could be?  I doubt it will with the 200% cost of figures compared to similar 40K models.  But there are loads of people/kids/adults who love Warhammer and will buy damn near anything.

Time will tell if you're right, but I'd say it's very clear that 40k is popular almost exclusively because of what it was, rather than what it is. What it is, is a mess. Somewhere between the powergaming bullshit heralded from the start of the Wardian era, and the sort of enforced casualness and super compulsory fun time that has been heralded from the massive amount of criticism they received because of the former.

They're out of touch, and it shows. They try excessively to sell the ideas of the games, without actually giving those ideas anything resembling credibility, depth, or even a point. This is mostly because those ideas are lucky to last a few months before being entirely overruled or outmoded, but also because most of them already start off fundamentally flawed. They will literally go against any principle, if it helps sales. The compulsory fun/narrative element isn't even developed or presented well. It's sort of a gimmick and a cop out rolled into one.

The trouble is, GW's writing has lost any semblance of not being blatant sales fodder, and that's all it is. Because the remaining "talent" don't have the talent to hide that, or even give the gamers much of a reward for buying into the sales nonsense. Aside of the hobby aspect, which promotes itself, there's very little they do that encourages new gamers, yet they don't attract anywhere near enough and don't give anywhere near a remote toss about the ones they have. The fact is, they're relying on a company built by better men. Those better men aren't there. I can't see the situation improving as a result, and they aren't going to get better men to fix it (who would lower themselves?).

It's rather telling that Calth gets released to a big fanfare, and is the only thing that's saved GW from a massive humiliation, trading it for a minor one instead. I also don't believe people bought Calth in order to start 40k. They bought it because it was a bargain.

I seriously doubt that GW are going to make a habit of it. All the while they've essentially drawn a line over the games, and without the games, what's the point?

[Ray Rivers]

It's rather telling that Calth gets released to a big fanfare, and is the only thing that's saved GW from a massive humiliation, trading it for a minor one instead.

The set was only available for 2 weeks during the reported financial period.

Given the current economic climate, holding your own is probably not so bad.

I really don't wish any mini manufacturing company ill will, whether I like their product or not. For example, Alien Dungeon who produce All Quiet on the Martian Front, apparently have gone under or are restructuring. That could cost me a a bunch of money, but I refuse to talk ill of them. The hobby is just too small for that and the disappearance of a major manufacturer could see our niche disappear into oblivion.

[Momotaro]

At £50 some of those boxes are good value, some are poor.  

At Dark Sphere's £37.50 (and remember they didn't have to put them out to retail)... well even the Marine one is a £20 Dreadnought, a £5 captain and a pile of bitz.  Just going on eBay or to Anvil Industry for 10 pairs of Space Marine legs to expand an assault box and devastator box will cost you a tenner (both those boxes have parts for 10 marines... but only five pairs of legs).

At those prices, I start to think "What could I do with...".  Those Nurgle plague drones are a good bet for conversion to Blight Drones with some aftermarket resin, and I can find something to do with the rest of the box, even if it's just to sell or trade.  Everyone needs Manky Flying Robots in the future...

GW has some deep-seated structural problems that need addressing (and have been done to death on this thread), but selling these sets, getting some more money out of older models, is a smart move.  Credit where it's due.  Bet they wish they kept the moulds for all their 80s stuff...

[Dim_Reaper]

The financial climate is not really an excuse. Things have been getting steadily better (at least here in the UK) for quite some time. Whilst GW's prices omit those people on the lowest rung, most gamers I've met over the years have been the sorts of people who had sufficient amount of disposable income (or their parents did) that they're only marginally affected. Besides, is every other hobby/luxury company reporting massive drops in sales? Well, no. So there are other factors. Besides, they failed to meet their own targets. I'm sure their sales team was aware of the financial situation when making those estimates, so that really can't be the reason.

As to Calth being available for 2 weeks, I think it's fair to say that's where the majority of sales of that product will come from. Sure, there'll be a steady stream since, but only after the rush has petered off.

I just don't believe GW are doing about as well as they could. Their reputation in the industry is, and has been for many years, in tatters. They've had a stream of public relations disasters and they've done nothing to address any of them other than by being more obnoxious. I don't need to wish ill will on the company, they seem to go out of their way to generate it on their own.

I want the company to improve. I'm just past the point of believing it's possible. GW falling could really damage the industry, but I feel the effect will be negligible, at least for a short while. Getting rid of the sue-happy bunch of incompetent gits could even be a boon for the industry, showing many gamers for the first time what well-written wargames are like.

[Rhoderic]

As I've stated before, I don't count myself among those who predict GW's demise. While GW don't understand or care about the hobby anymore, they do understand and care a great deal about business. Making money is in their programming. It's the only thing in their programming, and that programming is the entirety of their essence.

I, conversely, am a hobbyist and have little interest in GW's money-making imperative. I don't really exist in that dimension. Perfectly natural, yes?. My gripe with GW is that, in their own minds, they don't really exist in the hobby dimension anymore. Their sales department is GW nowadays. Their creative department might as well be the people mopping the floors and emptying the dustbins so the sales people can sit in their offices and do their jobs with minimum interference. When they interact with "the hobby", they do it cynically, like how Mattel interacts with children or H&M interacts with teenagers. They are simply farming their fanbase for money, nothing more.

So, I in turn treat GW cynically. I have no qualms about "scavenging" off of them for the sake of my own hobby endeavours by buying some of their products if they're useful to me (as I well might with the Specialist Games re-launches), but that won't stop me having a low opinion of them as a company.

it's like people who say "speaking as a parent...", don't you want to stab them as a maniac? (Yes, I stole that from Ed Byrne)

Love Ed Byrne!

I'd say it's very clear that 40k is popular almost exclusively because of what it was, rather than what it is.

[...]

The fact is, they're relying on a company built by better men. Those better men aren't there.

Yes! Well spoken.

[nullBolt]

One of the issues is that every time GW takes a hit, the ENTIRETY of the wargaming market takes a hit. GW is pretty much the biggest wargaming company (even if they claim they are not) in the world and this means it's the only wargaming company known to a lot of investment bankers.

So, if you're a fledgling wargame maker and you approach a bank for a loan to start a company up, they take a look at GW, see it's sales are suffering and say the market is financially unviable (it probably is but not because GW are bad at business).

So then they go on Kickstarter and we've see how the overwhelming majority of Kickstarters end up.