Britain Invaded?

[Westfalia Chris]

That's basically my understanding of the situation. I don't know how effective airattacks against the RN would have been but I'm pretty sure that the crossing of the channel itself as well as keeping it open for supply are the key elements of Sealion.

I agree, that would be a key point - the Luftwaffe would have had to take out the RAF and then take on the Royal Navy as it sailed out (I seem to recall Scapa Flow was out of reach even of the Norwegian bases). I wonder if Hitler (who did not really appreciate the heavy surface fleet as an actual weapon, much like Napoleon did) would have used the large units available in 1940 as bait to  lure out the Royal Navy so that the Luftwaffe could catch them.

It is a very, very big "what-if". There are, however, several incidents that suggest the RN *could* have been severely mauled, to mention the Stuka attack on "Illustrious" in January 1941, and the sinking of "Repulse" and "Prince of Wales" by Japanese land-based bombers in December 1941 and that of HMS "Hermes" in April 1942.

That said of course there are hundreds of scenarios that could be played in a land engagement between GB and Germany. Of course plenty of room for what-ifs. Just from a historical point of view I believe the invasion itself and the logistics are the key elements...

Certainly. My favourite "fascinating aspect" would be the apparently planned massed airborne assault with "Gigant" and "Mammut" gliders. The key thing would be securing a port and preventing the Royal Navy from interfering.

Coincidentally, I recently watched "It Happened Here", a 1960s' fiction on a Britain under Nazi Rule with an obedient Mosleyite upper class aiding in the day-to-day running of the country. Rather disturbing stuff. The "Yesterday" TV channel currently runs a series on "The Channel Islands at War". I found it a bit tedious, and didn't watch more than the first episode, but there's some interesting stuff in it.

[Arlequín]

The Luftwaffe didn't need to destroy the RAF, it just needed to force it withdraw to the bases north of the Thames, which would even the odds somewhat with regards to endurance and time over target. While the RAF was the vaunted saviour of Britain, this wasn't actually the case. I wouldn't want anyone to take that as a slight against the RAF's efforts though. The Navy was the key factor in the defence however and while the Luftwaffe hadn't done too well at Dunkirk against shipping, I'm sure they'd learn from their experiences there. 

I agree that the logistics are the key factor and I'm pretty sure that to achieve a successful invasion everything would have had to have gone right for the Germans and everything go wrong for the British, at the very least, to put troops ashore. This trend would need to be maintained to keep the troops supplied and the heavy equipment ashore. The Luftwaffe seems to have been very overly tasked in the plans, keep the RN at bay, bomb the airfields, shoot down the RAF and act as air artillery, all at the same time.

I would be tempted to look for a scenario in which the Germans gained support from the Vichy Government (reduced occupation of France, less humiliating armistice conditions etc) and one in which the actions against the French Navy by the RN failed or didn't happen. The addition of French naval and air units and troops might tip the balance further to create a more equal chance of success.

As far as Nazi sympathisers in Britain go, there's generally an assumption that the BUF would go with the Germans. This wasn't the case and the prospect of this actually split the party, with Joyce and his ilk forming their own pro-German British Nazi party. Mosley and the 'moderates' (for want of a better term) pushed for peace until the war started, but then supported Britain (albeit from inside prisons mostly). Many BUF rankers fought in the war against Germany and we shouldn't confuse 'fascism' with 'traitor' as however misplaced their political beliefs, they were (uber) patriotic. The BUF's pre-war line was that no more British soldiers should die in a European war.

[The Gray Ghost]

Even if Germany landed an entire army I still don't see them being able to conquer Britain. Think of the hundreds of millions of tons in supplies the Allies had to ship to France, Germany didn't have any way of following up with the logistics.

[former user]

it would appear that a VBCW version with german participation could be more realistic than sealion?

[answer_is_42]

Whilst I don't think it was likely, it only takes a few events to make it plausable.

Let's say the Luftwaffe manages to destroy the RAF by the beginning of July 1940. Now, whilst the German surface fleet was rather useless throughout the war, their Navy would only need to keep a small strip of channel open - difficult, but not impossible to do with enough mines and submarines, plus overwhelming air support. British ground forces had lost most of their equipment in France, and it would not take much to secure a beachhead (Hitler still has faith in paratroopers). As long as the Germans can lay enough  mines and the skies remain clear for aircraft (dunno what Germany's air transport was like at this point - enough to supply the beachhead?). I can see it being done, but a lot rests on how fast the RN responce is.

[Alfrik]

An overview of posibilities for Sealion etc;

Looking at the slice of history, you have the Grand Strategic game of Sea and Air, can the Germans land a viable / supportable force in England? Game would have "actual" and "What If" versions. This contest can be "shrunk" for a Landing game to a set of dice checks each Landing turn.

Landing Game version, evolves Infanry and Armor with Air support, maybe some naval, but would concentrate on the Landing zone break outs etc rather than the Sea/Air campagin, it being "assumed" that the grand strategic action has resulted in some sort of stalemate stand off away from the Landing areas, that could as the turns go on decay for the germans based on historical ship totals etc. But the game would then pit English defenses holding the Germans long enough for the situation at sea to be brought to a desisve end etc.

Small Action Game would simply give some vaccus reason that the germans made it ashore and concentrates scenarios on small unit raiding actions for intel or disruption of supplies , take prisoners etc. A wild variety of equipment using 1 each would lend a hugh number of similar but differeing engagment possibilities.

Probably several board games out there that do the first 2 types of contest and many sets of rules to do the 3rd option Im sure

[Arlequín]

it would appear that a VBCW version with german participation could be more realistic than sealion?

Possible but I doubt it. The propaganda value to the opposition would be incredible, especially as there was still a large amount of ill-feeling against Germany in 1938. Even within the right wing of British politics of the time, the prospect of being a German vassal state was only popular with a few. The odds are that this would be the catalyst that united the opposition to the 'Government'.

Even if Germany landed an entire army I still don't see them being able to conquer Britain. Think of the hundreds of millions of tons in supplies the Allies had to ship to France, Germany didn't have any way of following up with the logistics.

True but we are talking about a much bigger army than the one the Germans intended to land. However supply would be a major problem and probably the deciding factor *if* they had tried it. It's a good comparison though, the landings in 44 nearly didn't work and they had been planned and prepared over a three year period.

Whilst I don't think it was likely, it only takes a few events to make it plausable.

Let's say the Luftwaffe manages to destroy the RAF by the beginning of July 1940. Now, whilst the German surface fleet was rather useless throughout the war, their Navy would only need to keep a small strip of channel open - difficult, but not impossible to do with enough mines and submarines, plus overwhelming air support. British ground forces had lost most of their equipment in France, and it would not take much to secure a beachhead (Hitler still has faith in paratroopers). As long as the Germans can lay enough  mines and the skies remain clear for aircraft (dunno what Germany's air transport was like at this point - enough to supply the beachhead?). I can see it being done, but a lot rests on how fast the RN responce is.

The RAF didn't need to be destroyed, just equalled. The RAF had no concept of ground support in 1940 and bombed 'tactical targets' - ports, bridges etc. A narrower avenue of landings by the Germans and a feint attack elsewhere could be presumed to be easier to protect and easier to concentrate the forces landing certainly. The air transport arm was also the one who lifted the paratroops and the air-landing troops. Both they and the Paratroops had taken heavy casualties in 1939 and 1940 and weren't up to strength again until just before Krete. The original plans called for several successive paratroop drops to lift what was already a depleted force, so I guess the idea of aerial supply was  no-go.   

IIRC the turnaround time for the ships to drop the first wave and its supplies and equipment was something like ten days. However slowly the RN responded it wouldn't be much contest even if they just sent the destroyers in.

As much as I love the idea of a Invasion 1940 scenario, without a major point of departure from reality prior to the decision to plan the attack, I just can't see it coming off.