The LAF Games Workshop Discussion Thread

[Condottiere]

Why is it that Age of Sigmar: Mortal Realms isn't available in the US? Aside from the figures, what are the contents of the magazine?

[Cherno]

The magazine I saw in the supermarket was Warhammer 40,000 Conquest, which apparently came out in the UK months ago. I might have seen some White Dwarf issues years ago in regular shops but to see something like this was weird. GW really must have a good market access.

[mcfonz]

Why is it that Age of Sigmar: Mortal Realms isn't available in the US? Aside from the figures, what are the contents of the magazine?

Always been the way. Done in the UK first, where the primary market is I guess, or perhaps the guaranteed market is? Then sometimes rolled out elsewhere.

Could be licensing. US not listed on one of their national markets though, so could have something to do with that. https://hachettepartworks.com/home/about

[pixelgeek]

Always been the way. Done in the UK first, where the primary market is I guess, or perhaps the guaranteed market is? Then sometimes rolled out elsewhere.

I don't think that the company that puts out these periodicals does them in the US. Years ago there were some for the LoTR movies that had minis and they were in the UK only.

[Condottiere]

Always been the way. Done in the UK first, where the primary market is I guess, or perhaps the guaranteed market is? Then sometimes rolled out elsewhere.

Could be licensing. US not listed on one of their national markets though, so could have something to do with that. https://hachettepartworks.com/home/about

Is this why GW closed down its US factory? AFAIK, none of these loss leaders have been rolled out in the US and I don't think factor in UK GW's decisions, other than being a source for profits and possible subsidization.

On eBay, I once came across a UK White Dwarf with a free metal Aenur model and should've picked it up, as it was cheaper than buying the figure, but already had the US issue. It's possible there's some law against supplying "toys" with magazines...  

[syrinx0]

Are you sure GW ever had a significant manufacturing presence in the US?
I receive sprues of plastics with my Wargames Illustrated magazine frequently so the US postal system seems to have no issue delivering them.

[Condottiere]

Are you sure GW ever had a significant manufacturing presence in the US?
I receive sprues of plastics with my Wargames Illustrated magazine frequently so the US postal system seems to have no issue delivering them.

AFAIK, they had a manufacturing facility, but I don't recall where it was and when it was shutdown - https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/601282.page;jsessionid=0B094989B1A017BC0BD7B2F97F7824AC#6949604 - and didn't make a difference in the price. I remember for ~$19.99 you could get a regiment box of 12-20 figures, with metal parts for command, a movement tray and stickers for banners.

On a related note, was checking the GW contact page and came across these holidays:

• When we are closed:
  
  Our warehouse facility is closed on the days below and orders will usually ship the following working day. Preorders are shipped for delivery on or after their launch date.
  
      Saturday, Sunday and all public holidays.
      New Year’s Day - Wednesday 1st January 2020
      Valentines Day - Friday 14th February 2020
      Good Friday - Friday 10th April 2020
      Memorial Day - Monday 25th May 2020
      Independence Day - Friday 3rd July 2020
      Labor Day - Monday 7th September 2020
      Emperor’s II Day - Friday 16th October 2020
      Thanksgiving Day - Thursday 26th November 2020
      Day after Thanksgiving Day - Friday 27th November 2020
      Christmas Eve - Thursday 24th December 2020
      Christmas Day - Friday 25th December 2020
      Emperor’s Day - Friday 31st December 2020
  

Good Friday is an holiday in Tennessee, but what's Emperor's Day? 

[Captain Blood]

Meanwhile...

Another paean to the commercial success of GW (and its ballooning value as a stock) in the business pages of today's Times...

Given the company's total market valuation is now far, far bigger than a number of huge, successful and well-known UK businesses and brands - and yet GW's market is de facto limited by demographics (like it's 90% teenage boys), the whole thing still feels like a ridiculously massive bubble to me. But it's certainly a darling of the stock markets right now.

I quote the entire piece below...
Enjoy, you GW enthusiasts

---------

"Games Workshop delivers a heroic tale for the modern age of investing...

Sometimes a business is so unexpectedly successful for its shareholders that it demands attention. Games Workshop, the maker and seller of Warhammer toy soldiers, is one of them.

For years this was a barely noticed, tiny business that toddled along in its own narrow niche, a rather dweeby niche, stumbling occasionally and making little apparent progress. Then, from 2016, it took off. The shares have rocketed from less than £5 to £70 in the space of four years. The company is now valued at £2.3 billion, considerably more than Dixons Carphone, say, or William Hill or JD Wetherspoon.

Stock market stars don’t normally do this. They usually go up like a rocket from launch and frequently come down just as quickly. Fevertree, the fizzy drinks group that has warned about it profits, seems to be well in to the second phase of this trajectory.

Games Workshop has been different, more of a sleeping giant. And for any entrepreneur who feels stuck in a low-growth rut, for any stockpicker who dreams of making 14 times their money, there are potential lessons here. For example, how on earth could a piddling maker of plastic figurines have become one of Britain’s 25 most valuable manufacturers? And was it possible to identify the signs of its coming success back in 2016?

Unreliable stuff, hindsight, but Charles Hall, a top-ranked analyst with Peel Hunt, the company’s house broker, believes that there were clues at the time and had a “buy” rating on the company even then. This, he says, “was a hidden gem in plain sight”.

Perhaps the biggest “buy” signal was the way in which the rise of social media was changing the world. Games Workshop was in the process of transforming itself from a company resistant to the phenomenon to one harnessing it. Previously it had regarded digital technology as a threat, one that would lure tabletop hobbyists away from physical products. Instead, the rise of Facebook and Instagram were to dramatically boost the hobby. Gamers have become more absorbed, more immersed in Warhammer’s fantasy world and better able to connect with millions of like-minded people around the globe. Seventy-six per cent of sales are now outside the UK. The network effects have been potent. Far from being a threat, social media has been a transformative boon.

Another reason for Warhammer’s success was the decision in 2015 to simplify the rules and popularise the games. Purists hated that, the complexity was the point for them, but it brought in far more youngsters (the main market is 12 to 18-year-old boys) than it alienated and started to appeal more to girls, too. Games Workshop also started to promote itself to schools (2,000 of them now run after-school Warhammer clubs) and the scouts (who dish out badges for Warhammer, as well as for camping and hillwalking).

It was a clue for sharp-eyed investors that the company was more prepared to popularise and monetise its assets. So was the decision to start licencing its carefully realised characters. New management under Kevin Rountree, a former PWC accountant, signalled a gradual change of heart on licencing, which has scooped in £10.7 million in the last six months alone. A television series based on the Warhammer character Eisenhorn, which has already spawned books, computer games and figurines, is being developed.

One other factor contributing to Games Workshop’s success was perhaps its decade in the wilderness. It had briefly prospered on the back of the Lord of the Rings movies in the early Noughties, making figures from the trilogy. That flurry of business quickly dissipated, leaving the company forced to cut costs, close shops and shed staff. It led to years of pain and restructuring, but left the business leaner and wiser. In future it would nurture its own IP, not piggyback off someone else’s. Now it employs 290 highly creative people designing new fantasy worlds, figures and stories — “our fortress wall”, the company says. Add to that the 500 stores worldwide where customers are encouraged to socialise, paint and play in person — “our fortress moat”.

The results speak for themselves. Profits are up from £17 million in 2016 to a forecast £96 million for the year that will end in May. Investor sentiment also has been transformed. The shares now trade on a price/earnings multiple of thirty times, as against an unloved ten times in 2016. Patience, attention to detail, the imagination to harness new technologies and a willingness to risk customer ire by changing the rules (literally) have all paid off handsomely.

The fabulous valuation comes at a cost, of course. Shareholders (from George Soros to JP Morgan) are likely to punish any disappointment in future. Mr Kirby used to warn of the pressures of having to meet shareholders’ growth expectations, saying that it could lead to “truly lamentable decisions”. Today’s management will need to be doubly vigilant they don’t adulterate the magic formula. Hornby, which has a market value of only £49 million, one-fiftieth the size of Games Workshop, shows that much-loved toys alone are not enough to build a successful business.

Active stockpicking is out of fashion. Passive investment is far cheaper and usually produces better returns. After the Neil Woodford debacle, confidence in star sharepickers is in the basement. But being able to identify future winners is important if actives are ever to stem the tide towards index tracking.

It would be silly to suggest that Games Workshop was an obvious “buy” in 2016. But there were clues. Unless we recognise that, active stockpicking is heading for even deeper trouble.

In the dark, brutal, dystopian world of Warhammer 40,000 years in the future, the four Chaos Gods are said to keep up a plentiful supply of wrath, violence and general mayhem. How agreeable that they have served up such a gentle winner back in the real world".

Patrick Hosking is Financial Editor of The Times

[von Lucky]

[Condottiere]

Next Week’s GW Products & Pricing CONFIRMED

• Zone Mortalis: Hive Warzone $185
  Zone Mortalis: Columns & Walls $80
  Zone Mortalis: Platforms & Stairs $185
  

 

MDF appears to be a cheaper alternative...

[mcfonz]

Is this why GW closed down its US factory? AFAIK, none of these loss leaders have been rolled out in the US and I don't think factor in UK GW's decisions, other than being a source for profits and possible subsidization.

On eBay, I once came across a UK White Dwarf with a free metal Aenur model and should've picked it up, as it was cheaper than buying the figure, but already had the US issue. It's possible there's some law against supplying "toys" with magazines...

No. GW are not the distributer of the magazine, I gave a link to the distributer which is where I said I got the infor from...

Nothing to do with factories in the US or elsewhere...

[Duncan McDane]

Good Friday is an holiday in Tennessee, but what's Emperor's Day? 

https://nationaltoday.com/october-holidays/
These are the possibilities. My bet's on national liqueur day  .
In other words, booze 'til you snooze-day.

[Daeothar]

Is this why GW closed down its US factory? AFAIK, none of these loss leaders have been rolled out in the US and I don't think factor in UK GW's decisions, other than being a source for profits and possible subsidization.

Somewhere around 2004 or so, when visiting GW Nottingham's offices, I was told that the US facility was there purely for insurance reasons. Should the UK facility burn down, they would have a fall back option. Why they chose a US location for this, I have no idea.

I suppose with the advent of outsourcing their production (to China for a while even), this was no longer required, and they shut it down. Probably during the Kirby Decline?

[mcfonz]

Any idea when it was opened up? When I worked for GW for a brief time in 1998 I was told that GW's approach to repeat the UK business model in the US hadn't worked initially because the market was already more used to buying products via mail order and were less reliant upon stores for purchases. They realised the internet was more important for them than having a store.

I would hazard a guess that this initial move to the US may have included a factory to mimic the UK set up. However, perhaps they realised that due to it being a more mail order market that they didn't necessarily need a factory to meet the demands in the same way, or perhaps lesser demand than expected. Then as you say, Chinese production combining with that resulting in the US factory being kept as insurance before they decided it wasn't needed at all?

Supposition I know.

But still. None of this has anything to do with Hachette distribution.

[fitterpete]

GW US Headquarters was in Glen Burnie Maryland. I dont know what they actually made there but I do know they had bins and bins of pewter not in boxes or blisters yet. Whether it was shipped from the UK then packaged or it was cast here I have no idea. I knew a few guys who got jobs there thinking they were going to be the next WD writer/editor some day. The big draw was you could buy pewter miniatures per gram for cheap. Or just scoop some up in your pocket as one guy did, he came in one time with a pocket full of warhammer quest wardancers.