Who Started WW1?

[grant]

Apologizing to everyone for being so awesome!

There, made it correct for for you. 

[huevans]

As it happens, I am in the middle of Sean Mc Meekin's "July 1914" which breaks down the diplomatic moves on an hourly basis.

So far, Serbia looks like the villain of the piece. It was engaged in a campaign to destabilize A-H in part by supporting terror and assassination of prominent Austrian figures. No great power is going to tolerate that. Serbia is only doing it because it knows that Russia will back it. And Russia wants to expand into the Balkans and obtain control of the Bosphorus. So Russia and A-H are on a collision course w Serbia as Russia's proxy.

So far, the Austrian - and German - mistake is not supporting a "Cold War" proxy war in which 1 of Serbia's Balkan rivals is backed and supplied to rip into Serbia, thus allowing A-H to stay out of direct involvement. Of course, A-H could have engaged in its own covert terrorist operations against Serbia.

Tactics that proved useful when there was a balance of nuclear deterrence in the 1950's-80's, were unfortunately not developed in the 1910's.

Germany seems just stupid in its assumption that Russia will not fight when Serbia gets over-run by A-H.

[huevans]

Of course, in a macro sense, A-H was probably screwed anyway and would have disintegrated even wo WW1. So the ? is why Germany didn't just cut A-H loose. This would have removed the issue of the Balkans as a causus belli with Russia and potentially broken the Triple Entente.

France would not challenge Germany unaided by Russia. GB would not commit to a major land war as its major concern was German naval power. So no WW1.

McMeekin would argue, I guess that Germany had its own Middle Eastern agenda and wanted to prop Turkey up. But this is hardly a hardcore state necessity for Germany. More like K-Bill's little fantasy.

[Shawnt63]

Since this is obviously a serious topic I will put in my historical perspective.

A certain adventurer ( to be named at the end) was notorious for rooting around in other peoples lands and taking things for "Museums" having no concern at all about killing and maiming as he went. It was he who took the Kaisers tooth brush and left a French Baguette as a calling card. Then hoping a train he headed quickly to Paris to leave a large smudge on Napoleons tomb with a German beer tankard beside it. Then getting into his own personal aircraft he flew to St Petersburg where he stole the Czars favourite hat and "accidently" dropped some Eidlewiess beside the hats location. Flying this time to London he "found" some of the crown jewels and in place left some Sauerkraut! His final two destinations were Vienna and Sarajevo. In Vienna he left two tickets to the Sarajevo gulash fest addressed to the Archduke and then headed down to Sarajevo to tell a certain "revolutionary" that the Archduke said that Serbia smells bad.

So its not about a country or countries it was one guy - just one guy and he did it to free up more space to explore and conduct "archeological digs" (if you believe his hype.

The man - a true American hero - INDIANNA JONES!

[FramFramson]

I think that there is at least good deal of validity to the view that also points out that no matter when or how it happened, the great powers of Europe were in clear low-grade competition for decades and that a broader conflict of some sort was inevitable. In many ways, it's impressive that they balanced on the knife edge for as long as they did.

[Westfalia Chris]

The man - a true American hero - INDIANNA JONES!

I call BS. Not even the post-Teddy-Roosevelt United States were barmy enough to let a 15-year-old get a pilot's license.

On a more serious note, though, I'd really recommend the aforementioned "The Guns of August" for an in-depth and harrowing analysis of the various "automatisms" that had developed in the pre-war years and served to aggravate the situation once the trigger was pulled, if you'll excuse the pun.

[Cubs]

What I have found interesting is reading some pre-WW1 Edwardian fiction and finding that the danger of a European conflict was on everyone's mind, but that many people thought it would be confined to the Balkans only.

A clash was certainly expected, and indeed a major war that would involve most of Europe was certainly feared (much as WW3 was feared during the 1980's I guess), but a lot of people were thinking (hoping?) that the various powers would not risk becoming involved in an all-out war and at worst they would fight almost a colonial war isolated to the Balkan region.

[former user]

as there was also that phenomenon called "invasion literature"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_literature

[von der Tann]

So the ? is why Germany didn't just cut A-H loose.

I'd say that was so unthinkable, because even though Prussia/A-H fought over territory in the past and Austria was not included in the German Reich in 1871, A-H used to be part of the Holy Roman Empire of German Nations and thus was alot closer to the German mindset back then, then say the Russians, British or god-forbid the French (no offense).
So while it is a good question I think it is irrelevant, given that Germany could not be picky with her allies, as the Kaiser so gloriously mismanaged the delicate treaty system the Iron Chancellor Bismarck established in his days.

Just my piece of mind ...

[grant]

as there was also that phenomenon called "invasion literature"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_literature

Did not know that. I'm definitely going to look up some of those for fun.

[former user]

absolute wargaming fodder, I can tell 

[huevans]

I think that there is at least good deal of validity to the view that also points out that no matter when or how it happened, the great powers of Europe were in clear low-grade competition for decades and that a broader conflict of some sort was inevitable. In many ways, it's impressive that they balanced on the knife edge for as long as they did.

And of course, there was absolutely no precedent for anyone believing that a war would last 4 years of stalemate, kill 10,000,000 people and shatter the political structure of 3 of the main combatants. If you suggested that in summer 1914, probably everyone would think you were crazy.

[Plynkes]

...and shatter the political structure of 3 of the main combatants.

I'd put that number at five. In addition to Austria-Hungary, Imperial Germany and Imperial Russia collapsing, the Ottoman Empire was swept away, and Italy ended up with Alexei Sayle in charge.

[FramFramson]

Italy ended up with Alexei Sayle in charge.