I think in the end skill is the greatest balancer because a more skillful opponent may know ways, either sword block or dodge, to counter the other's weapon. But looking at both weapons, the rapier has the potential to hit first. There is the quick lunge... but if it misses the wielder had best get out of the way of the katana or such that will be coming back in a slash. The rapier wielder will need a buckler or a main-guache. This is all assuming a balanced fight and I doubt any foreign soldier is so worried about a test of honor...he'd likelier rather just fight dirty and walk away.