Help with Background: Why does Russian invades Finland in 2015?

[Rob_bresnen]

This might seem a bit odd, but I am planning a Force on Force Campaign involving Russia invading Finland in 2015. Obviously, this isn't really about to happen, but I want to create a plausible 'what if?' scenario.

I was wondering if some of the LAFers in the Finland-Russia area, or who just have an interest in that sort of thing, could suggest some reasons why Russia would invade Finland.

Let me begin by saying this VERY IMPORTANT POINT. This is a discussion of a purely hypothetical situation for a game. Russia is not about to invade Finland. I defiantly do not want to engage in any 'Russian bashing' or 'Finnish bating'. If this thread starts wandering off into politics, I will ask the moderators to lock it. I am not anti-Russian; I will be painting both sides in the conflict, and in all probability will end up playing the Russian myself.

OK, with that said, here are a few questions you might want to think about...

So why would Russia invade Finland?
What would it take for the diplomatic situation between Finland and Russia to break down?
What would it take for them to actually resort to force instead of sanctions?
What would be their real strategic goals, and what would they present to the world as the reasons for their actions?
What resources do the Fins have that the Russians might want? 

Here are a few Ideas I have had myself- but they are in the very early stages of germination.

What If ...

...the new Finnish government were right wing nationalists and the Russian government was dominated by ultra-nationalists...What if some border disputes escalated into a small skirmish between Finnish Border Guards and Russians, where shots were exchanged...What if the press in Finland, prompted by the government, was whipped up into a frenzy of anti-Russian sentiment... What if attacks on Russians living in Finland increased...What if Finnish Ultra-Right wing extremists, with connections to the Finnish secret service, attacked the Russian embassy in Helsinki, and the Russian ambassador was killed...What if the Russians expelled the Finnish ambassador in protest...What if a Russian ship was captured in Finnish territorial waters, and the crew interred. Without diplomatic communication the situation quickly devolves and a Spetsnaz team are dispatched to free the Russian sailors... What if some Finnish soldiers were killed in the raid, and the Finns retaliate by sinking a Russian patrol boat...What if the Russian decide that they need to invade Finland to change the regime for a more pro-Russian one....

How does that sound? Is it plausible? I welcome any comments and suggestions.

[pocoloco]

I think no chance for an anti-Russian government and prolly no real solo Finland vrs Russia scenario, since we are now part of the EU. I think a small Spetsnaz operation of some sort would be most plausible. We have stopped couple of ships lately with contraband arms and/or military spare parts on board so that would be possible cause for a small hotspot, so to say.

Lately on the political side of things discussion has been about Finnish-Russian couples fighting over the parenting rights but I see that as something not causing a military intervention.

Yesterday there was a documentary in the telly about how vulnerable our electrical grid is... few cruise missiles and half of the country would be without electricity in under one hour. Same feat could be achieved by a small group of people as well... maybe there's a possible scenario for you? Once shots are fired and things are under way, some Spetsnaz (fire team or two) are sent to dispose one major electrical transformer that are mostly located above ground.

[Rob_bresnen]

Thank you. That's exactly the sort on information I am after, especially about the electric grid.

 Why don't you think you could have an Anti-Russian government? Is it unlikely, or out of the question (some times with these 'what if' situations you have to stretch the facts a bit).

So, as Finland are part of the EU, any large scale invasion of Finland (comparable to the Russian operation in Georgia) should provoke a response from the other EU nations?

As the EU has no army, I guess it would be down to the individual member states. This takes time, and political will, so I would think that what ever the Russians objectives would be they would have to believe they could achieve them before the EU members could retaliate. As no one really wants to go to war with Russia, perhaps they would try to force the Russians to negotiate using diplomacy and sanctions first (That's what happened in Georgia)  In the mean time there are Russian Tanks closing on Helsinki!

Anyone any idea what objectives the Russians could hope to achieve in a few weeks?

[pocoloco]

We the people don't have a strong anti-Russian (people) sentiment, not on a level that it would materialize on having quite openly anti-Russia (country) government. But of course all this can be somewhat disregarded for the sake of a what-if scenario, that's why "what-if-isms" are of course interesting.

To Finland to have openly anti-Russia government, I think it would mean that something very directly anti-Finland would have happened in Russia or by Russia. That would then have caused Finnish people to vote an anti-Russia government into the power. Then things could get worse by line of actions done on either side of the border; stopping freighters, raising road taxes on national borders, taking back the property bought by citizens of other country in "opposing" country etc...

Finland being a member of EU would mean that Russia would need to be swift thus the attack on power grid would be quite fitting scenario... to bring Finland to its knees asap, without a slow and long military campaign that enables EU to take action and also gives Finland a chance to mobilize its 250K-300K strong reserves.

I think action would be rather small scale, not huge tank columns advancing... at least not in the beginning. Russian air-supremacy can be achieved, but with a cost.

Would Russia be interested to occupy demilitarized Aland isles? If so, would Sweden appear to help Finland?

Oh, gotta ask, what are you planning to use as FDF?

[Rob_bresnen]

Again, an excellent insight. Thank you.

Your right about the anti-Russian government. It shouldn't be too hard to come up with a reason for the fins to elect an anti-Russian government.

AS far as the FDF, well perhaps oddly, I thought I would go for TAG Russians. here is as tester I have been working on.




What do you think?

I also thought the Russians from Mongrel and Red Star would be useful as Russians.

[pocoloco]

Test figure is looking really good and gearwise it's ok, especially since there are no modern Finns offered by any company/maker that I know of... of course the helmets and ballistic protection looks quite different from Russian gear.

Here are some recent news links related to Finnish-Russian relations, maybe you can get something useful out from them:

http://yle.fi/uutiset/russia_still_a_mystery_to_many_finns/6529271

http://yle.fi/uutiset/concerns_grow_over_russian_nuclear_plant_safety/6529717

http://yle.fi/uutiset/finland_easing_visa_procedure_for_russians/6533150

http://yle.fi/uutiset/stuk_most_russian_reactors_wouldnt_pass_muster_in_finland/6533766

http://yle.fi/uutiset/finnish-russian_cultural_centre_to_open_in_helsinki/6534085

http://yle.fi/uutiset/upgrading_cyber_defenses/2987415 (NATO's cyber defense centered in Estonia, IIRC)

http://yle.fi/uutiset/defence_minister_wallin_finland_decides_independently/6166369

And here's Youtube channel of Finnish Defence Forces:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=finnish+defence+forces&oq=finnish+de&gs_l=youtube.3.1.0l10.522.4239.0.7087.12.10.1.1.1.0.258.966.2j3j2.7.0...0.0...1ac.1.guXmUsDaKzs

[answer_is_42]

I can't imagine a Russian attack on any of her European neighbours provoking anything other than a full response by either the EU, NATO or both (not to mention direct or indirect Swedish support – surely a certainty?). Possibly including a threat of nuclear war, especially in the face of a large invasion.

If you were to draw up a list of possible flashpoints across the globe, I think the Russo-Finnish border would be pretty low down on the list. Russia in particular has far more pressing concerns than launching off on such an adventure.

Does it have to be Finland?  There are many other far more plausible Russia-involved conflicts you could use.

[Rob_bresnen]

 

Test figure is looking really good and gearwise it's ok, especially since there are no modern Finns offered by any company/maker that I know of... of course the helmets and ballistic protection looks quite different from Russian gear.

Here are some recent news links related to Finnish-Russian relations, maybe you can get something useful out from them:

Brilliant stuff, very helpful.

 I am glad you like the test model, I was hopping you would approve. I plan to use the woolly hats only for the FDF as the helmets are not the same. I can always use the ones with helmets as Russians. I am going to paint the Finns in white and the Russians in green to make it very obvious which side is which.

I can't imagine a Russian attack on any of her European neighbours provoking anything other than a full response by either the EU, NATO or both (not to mention direct or indirect Swedish support – surely a certainty?). Possibly including a threat of nuclear war, especially in the face of a large invasion.

If you were to draw up a list of possible flashpoints across the globe, I think the Russo-Finnish border would be pretty low down on the list. Russia in particular has far more pressing concerns than launching off on such an adventure.

Does it have to be Finland?  There are many other far more plausible Russia-involved conflicts you could use.

I picked Finland because my regular gaming buddy is half-Finnish. It's to peak his interest really. As I said Russia attacking Finland is pure fiction, (except for that time in 1939. And 1941.), but its more for the fun of it. Also I was planning to make some scenery for The Winter War, and thought it would be good to get more use out of it.

I think that as long as the Russians planned to succeed in a short amount of time, then they might be able to succeed in securing some strategic objectives before they were forced to negotiate by the EU and USA. A blitzkrieg type surprise attack could catch the western nations off guard, giving time for the Russians to do what ever it is they are wanting to achieve before the democracies can organise a response. All this could be some heavy handed way to force other nations into concessions. Russia could negotiate new borders etc from a position of strength if they had troops in Helsinki.

As to the treat of a nuclear response, I think that would be unlikely. What would be gained? That would only escalate the conflict to the point that the nuclear nations would be in direct danger themselves. The US threatened to put troops on the ground when Russia invaded Georgia, but they never threatened a nuclear strike.  

[Arrigo]

in 1941 the Finns invaded not the other way around...  and never say such a thing like 'there is no way X can invade Y' it is bad for galactic Karma...    (I recall someone saying to me that there was no way Iraq could have invaded Kuwait... it was end of July 1990... ). Back to 'serious' stuff...

One thing I hate in scenario background is when someone postulates that some ultra-X government takes power. It is fine if you really want to have good guys vs bad guys, but if you want to engage both sides there are ways to have both sides acting rationally. We did this until 1939 more or less... despite what some people says about the Kaiser even 1914 Germany was rational (if there was some with some streak of irrationality was on the Entente side... a certain mr. J. Fisher... oook reaction to Andrew Lambert again back on stuff...).

Let's say the Russian government is engaging in some saber rattling with EU for some reason. Maybe just a reaction ot a new HR campaign against the Kremlin. They decided to send some clear signal that they are getting bored with the usual EU ranting and deploy some combat units in the western district and hold a big wargame (1:1 scale those things called field exercise). During the exercise one of the Parchim II corvette of the Baltic fleet straddled in the Finnish territorial water and it is seized. Helsinki is not pleased of having the Baltic Fleet wandering around. Westenr media do their usual rant on how bad the Russians are at sea, the even interview prof. Andrew Lambert from KCL who deliver one of his caustic talk on the Russian Navy. EU ramp a bit the rhetoric just to show how strong they are.  Of course the Russians are not impressed. They simply said that the maritime border was not trespassed and that the Finnish Navy seized the corvette illegally. There is a tense diplomatic stand-off. The Kremlin and the bulk of the Military leadership are quite bored of the usual 'the russian are bad' line in the media. EU do not want to apologize fearing to look weak. Both sides are quite confident that if the push their casse hard enough everything will be solved in their favor and without any incident. Someone in the Baltic fleet came up with a plan to raid the ship and free the sailors using special forces. In a typical case of mission (and publicity) creep several Military agencies want to have a role in the operation (to get publicity and money in the next budget), from a small SF raid it became a small combined arms operation they will land a naval infantry battalion near the Finnish naval base where the Parchim is held to secure it while two airborne battalions will seal the area. Get the hell in get the hell out, minimal reral force used, the display of Russian potential firepower will awe the defenders. Air cover will awe the defenders too... nothing could gone wrong... the Naval Infantry and the Paratroopers are top notch, contract soldiers, well equipped, well trained, the plan is fool proof. After all the Finns illegally seized the Russian ship... it is not a raid but a rescue operation...

and someone higher up think this is a good idea... and give green light. Short spectacular action, the kind that boost the image of a superhero-president, build confidence, and even better show the EU are jut talkie talkie fools...

So the operation is launched. But something is not going as planned. Finnish F-18 get involved ans shot down a couple of Flankers. The airborne drop is not completely successful... what we do... fall back and apologize... or up the ante... the western military districts were already mobilized for the exercise and even reinforced. If a lighting strike could be conducted before EU and NATO reinforcements are deployed, probably a favorable settlement could be obtained... just a short victorious war... the Finnish army in not mobilized, the reinforced 6th Army is more than enought o conduct quick operations with the support of the Baltic Fleet and the Airborne Troops command (and it is doable, the Russian forces of the Leningrad district are indeed capable to pull it out, with naval and airborne support remember that Russian brigades now are larger than Finnish ones) Just a little war to show Russia has fangs... so the Kremlin orders contingency plans  (I am betting there is a contigency plan for a limited strike into Finland if not as training tool) activated.

The Russians crossed the border... how long it will be and how it will turn out will depend on your dice.

But as you see the scenario is believable (ok things have to happens in the order prescribed) and it is not even base don conspiracies, extremist governments or regime changes. Starting wars is quite easy.

[Rob_bresnen]

Wow...that's brilliant! that is even better than I had hoped for. Once again I am awed by the speed and level on insight and imagination to be found on LAF.

If it's all right with you I think I will cut and paste that whole scenario as the background for my campaign.  Well done!

I am a bit worried you might have give but too much thought as to how to start a war. 

[Hildred Castaigne]

Well if you are set on gaming an unlikely war, then use an unlikely premise.
Russia is running low on lutefisk, so they plan an attack on Scandinavia to secure the precious and pungent resources. But because their maps are a bit crap they end up in India and have to fight tigers to survive. In the confusion the Taliban believes that Russia is trying to capture Robert Fisk. So they send a team into Moscow, who rescue Robert and get a chance to visit Lenin's tomb. Eventually France and Germany declare war on Russia and begin a campaign to make the world safe for food that smells odd.
With the rest of the world distracted, Iran decide to advance their nuclear programme and really mess up their environment with uranium mines.

Did you want a game involving uranium mines and tigers?
Didn't think so.

Don't worry about the story so much.
It is 2015. Finland and Russia have gone to war. End of story.
Now start the game!  

[Rob_bresnen]

Don't worry about the story so much.
It is 2015. Finland and Russia have gone to war. End of story.
Now start the game! 

True, but I liked Arrigo's story better.

[Hildred Castaigne]

True, but I liked Arrigo's story better.

You're right, I should have added a main character. 

[voltan]

Another option is that Russia has a toilet paper shortage and is trying to harvest all of Finlands trees to solve it.

[Hildred Castaigne]

Another option is that Russia has a toilet paper shortage and is trying to harvest all of Finlands trees to solve it.

That is brilliant!