Yes, HotT isn't free any more. But it is very good indeed - and has some Tolkien-inspired army lists included. It also scales nicely: while it's set up for a 24AP game on a 3' square table, you can happily play much bigger games, generally by breaking down the armies into a number of 24AP or 36AP commands. An advantage that HotT has over many games, I think, is that it's specifically designed to reflect fantasy literature rather than having its ethos largely derived from other games.
I'd also recommend Mayhem, though. Have you played it? I don't recall the inconsistencies you mention, other than rolling high for command points and low in combat. The default option makes the game much less swingy than it might first appear. We've played it in a couple of scales, and it's great. I think manoeuvre is much more of a feature of Mayhem than of many other games, as you can gamble on really pushing certain units forward. The only downside is that no standard profiles are given in the game. But there's a free list included in a download for it (basically, Warmaster armies). And it's easy to make your own. In fact, the unit design feature might really suit Middle Earth, as it'll allow you to have very powerful elves, etc. And the horde rules allow you design orcish units that are poor fighters but effective in very large numbers.
Your basing will work fine in both games, as you have the correct frontage and depths don't really matter.