I dont get it. I am not saying you guys are lying but you must realise how insane this all sounds. So they know something we don't?
Here's my vague understanding of the situation, scraped together from various places:
1) 90% of GW sales are 40k - in fact 2/3 of their sales are JUST space marines;
2) LotR/Hobbit sales are tiny - read somewhere that the Desolation of Smaug sourcebook sold in the hundreds. That's... pathetic - RPG sales figures, not GW and certainly not a licensed product. That explains the minimal effort put into the Christmas Hobbit releases;
3) Fantasy is between the two - about 10% of sales, but it isn't producing the same return on investment as 40k for a game that fills half the shops;
4) GW recognise that the cost of entry to the game is too high - a basic army costs hundreds even using the starter set. That includes the huge pile of rules you have to accumulate and digest just to get going;
5) Business analytics would suggest that they just can the line and fall back on 40k - smaller but safer turnover and more profit on fewer sales;
6) They can't just release a skirmish game - people buy the book then just use their existing armies;
7) Too many of the models are 10-15+ years old and looking dated;
8 ) Too many other companies are making cheaper elves, dwarves, orcs etc. Some companies are specifically making replacements and add-ons for GW figures;
9) I've seen figures of 15-20% annual growth in the tabletop games market (board, RPG and minis games). Against that background, GW sales are shrinking. Reading between the lines of their annual report, some folks have suggested that their sales have collapsed and it's only the inflated prices and selling every word they write that are keeping them going - plus the occasional piece of brilliance (End Times, Imperial Knight);
10) Plenty of their competitors have a much better (cheaper, more structured) business model for players to buy into and expand their purchases - with quality components and slick rules, even boardgames are now, arguably, reproducing the tabletop wargame experience just as well as wargames.
So the plan is smaller armies of models with a design that's new and unique to GW, and containing the huge centrepiece models that only GW make. Smaller army = easier/cheaper to start playing. Nobody else makes giant ratmen with gatling gun hands (or food blenders or oompah bands, judging from that Stormfiend photo), so customers MUST buy from GW. It also allows a smaller core ruleset with campaign-specific add-ons - no more spending £300 on rulebooks to keep up with the local scene.
At the same time, they streamline the inventory, stimulate sales with new models and keep the sales ticking over and inventory tight with regular limited releases. Win-win right?
On the down site...
1) With their usual tin ear for customer feedback, they may underestimate the number of people who just stick with what they have, proxy with existing models anyway, or simply rage-quit GW games (see also: D&D 4th Edition, New Coke). If these people are not buying much though, will GW even miss them, or are parents instrumental in getting kids into the hobby?
2) Their prices are STILL too high. You can buy into plenty of other games with £50-100 TOTAL investment. £55 for a giant army leader and £40 for a single unit of three giant ratmen may STILL be to expensive. Pricing remains to be seen;
3) It still doesn't sound like a coherent plan to bring in and retain new players while giving the old-timers something to do. On the other hand, it could work - if they bring out a great game and some cool models at sane prices, it could be brilliant.
Simple answer is - who knows?
20 June 2008, 06:41:42 PM